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Vasicek Loan Valuation

This calculator estimates the risk-adjusted value of a loan by comparing its contractual cash flows with the return required to compensate for expected credit losses and the capital required to absorb unexpected losses.

EUR10,000,000
6.0%
5
3.0%
2.0%
45%
12%

Rho (asset correlation) = 19% (Basel formula, from PD) · used for the capital charge

Risk-adjusted value

94.3%

EUR9,430,000 · priced at required return (EL + capital)

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EL-only value

96.4%

ignores capital charge

RAROC

14.2%

vs 12% hurdle

Actual spread

300 bps

coupon - risk-free

Required spread

265 bps

EL 155 + cap 110

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Cushion: +35 bps
Contractual cash flow ``` Expected cash flow ```

How it works

The calculator uses a one-factor Vasicek credit-risk model to estimate the unexpected loss associated with the loan. The model links the probability of default to a systematic credit factor and derives a stressed, high-percentile default rate.

Required spread = Expected-loss spread + Capital-charge spread

The EL-only value discounts the loan's expected cash flows at the risk-free rate. It therefore reflects expected credit losses but does not charge for the capital required to absorb unexpected losses.

The capital charge is based on the difference between the Vasicek 99.9% conditional default rate and the expected default rate. This unexpected loss is multiplied by the LGD and the chosen hurdle rate to produce a capital charge spread.

The risk-adjusted value then discounts the loan's actual contractual cash flows at the risk-free rate plus the required spread. A loan priced at exactly the required spread has a value of par when its return meets the specified hurdle rate.

RAROC measures the return generated by the loan after expected credit losses relative to the economic capital required to support the exposure.